Time to Panic?

I have made it a habit of reading the farmer's almanac for the past few years now and I have found that however it is that they make their predictions, they have been fairly accurate. Although they rarely make claims as to the total amounts of snow that will be falling in a particular area, they do give a general sense of whether the snow will be heavy or not. Some would say that vagueness makes it much easier for them to make predictions, but I say predicting in what week we are to get snow, rain or fair weather, almost a year in advance in the true feat. For example, two weeks ago we were supposed to get snow according to the farmer's almanac. According to the weathermen we were supposed to be getting a morning of freezing rain with snow mixed in at times before it all ended by midday.

Several hours and several inches of snow later, it was still falling and still accumulating. Now the weathermen had been predicting up to the minute forecasts and were truly left speechless at that particular moment. Yet, the farmer's almanac had predicted exactly that, snow. So now today, the forecast is calling for light snow here in the DC area. Anyone who has lived here for any amount of time will tell you that there are still far too many in this area who tend to panic at the first hint of snow and stay home. They will raid the grocery store and stock up on necessities guarding against the chance that perhaps this is the big one. They stand at the door with shovel in hand waiting for the snow to begin falling in earnest; and they abandon their cars anywhere they can so that they can run on foot in the true panicky style.

Again they are calling for anywhere from one to three inches for the area. That is the type of prediction that I like because it means that they are giving us the range of snow fall that could happen. The weathermen leave themselves open to cover themselves in the event of heavy snow or light snow so that's fine. What unnerves me is when weathermen tend to get all high and mighty and attempt to assuage the fears of the panicky members of our region. So far this year the track record of the weathermen has been fairly mediocre so it won't be all that good if they get another one wrong. In fact, I have put my faith in them today.

The last two storms in the area have occurred overnight so I have ended up stuck at home as opposed to at work. There was one storm early in the year where it started snowing during the day but by afternoon it had warmed up enough to melt on the roads. Today I woke up to pristine streets and cloudy skies and listened to the forecast; the morning was to be okay but the afternoon could turn dicey. I sit inside my building at such a point that I have to walk a ways to get to a window so on faith, I am counting on the fact that the weathermen are getting this one right. Being stuck at home is far more appealing than being stuck in the office. I have my emergency shovel packed and ready and I have parked in the garage at work so that I don't have to deal with digging my car out at the end of the day.

It never fails though. For all the predictions that the weathermen can make, there are times when you can make or break the forecasts based on your actions. What do I mean? I call it one of Murphy's unwritten laws (or perhaps it is written and I just haven't seen it). In this law, 'purchases made for winter weather activities will negate their need for the rest of the season.' What does that mean? Simply stated, if you purchase a brand now snowblower, more than likely, you won't need it for the rest of the year. I remember one year my parents bought my brother and I a new sled. It was one of the long ones which you could lie down in or ride in tandem. We looked forward to using it all winter only to have dustings of snow. Similarly, have you bought a new snow shovel? You'd be better served using it to take pizzas out of an oven rather than shovel snow simply because snow won't be falling.

I'm sitting here now wondering if it is snowing out there or not. It was starting to pick up in intensity as I came into the office so who knows, by now we could have a veritable blizzard on our hands but for all I know it is bright and sunny out there. I therefore keep my faith in our weathermen (as aggravating as it can be) and in the farmer's almanac (can a caterpiller's movement truly predict a springtime thaw?) and the fact that my recent acquisition of a snow shovel will come to some eventual purpose. I don't want to be stuck on the side of the road in a snow drift but then again, I don't want to be one of the panicky members of Washington's elite either. A happy medium should be just fine.