Beating the Polls

We are finally entering the actual election year for the next Presidential race. Although some candidates have been running for over three years now, it's finally time to separate the wheat from the chaff and figure out who appears to be the frontrunner. With the results of recent caucuses throwing everything into a tizzy it's kind of hard to figure out who is really the candidate the American people are really behind. Ask one person they'll tell you one name and ask another and they'll tell you that they like someone else. And there's always that person who still stands steadfast in his unwavering support of Mickey Mouse. While Mickey may not be running, if his name were simply added to the ballot as a joke, I would be curious to find out just how many people would vote for him. Probably more than some of the independent candidates who are struggling to keep up with the election runs of their more prosperous and popular party-affiliated candidates. Still, we rely on the media to help steer us to answers.

If it weren't for the media, and more specifically, the popular media, Bill Clinton may not have been elected during his first term. His appearances on shows like The Late Show or on MTV helped him reach out to the audiences and though he had plenty of skeletons in his closet, it perhaps made him appear more human. Now more than a decade later, candidates continue to attempt to make similar inroads with the people but with varying degrees of success. And as always, political polls are being taken in an attempt to determine a viable candidate. I have never really trusted polls simply because they are far to easy to manipulate depending on what results you want to show. Anyways, the results aren't always correct either; take for example the recent New Hampshire results. Hillary Clinton beat out all the pollsters and the pollsters themselves were left looking sheepish and unsure. How is this possible?

Well it's simple if we look at it this way. When you are making friends, do you look for people with something in common or with completely opposing viewpoints? Friends with commonalities of course; that being said, when polling for your candidate of choice, would you poll more of those who agree with you or less? Why more of course! Now I know most people out there, pollsters in particular will take exception to this. The fact is that these polls are supposed to be completely random and unbiased but let's just say for the sake of arguement that we are attempting to manipulate the people by making their candidate more popular; what do you do? Skew the results a bit in favor of your candidate. Like it or not, the majority of people out there could care less about where a candidate stands on issues of gay marriage and the like, all that matters to most people are the issues that affect them directly. Outside of the political world of Washington, there's very little interest in hardcore politics.

Ask the average American who the frontrunners in the election and you may get two or three of the more popular names but nothing more. Those at the bottom of the totem poll probably exist in a void so if the pollsters are interested in getting their candidate's name out there for the general public why not 'show' that they are more popular in the polls? It's a bit dishonest but then again how are we to know? Like I said, polls are supposed to be independent and random, but then again, people aren't made to sign anything saying I've been polled (especially for these on-the-street type polls). Isn't it possible that the results are coming out the way they are to promote someone over another? Perhaps in New Hampshire the pollsters were more for Obama than anyone else and the results of the polls were made to come out that way. Maybe all the people who indicated they would vote for Clinton or Edwards (or Mickey Mouse) were conveniently only counted ever fifth time while ever Obama supporter counted for two. The results would suddenly shift wouldn't they? Again, I'm not saying that this is what's going on but I would only say that if you truly want to know about a candidate, do your research and don't solely rely on the results of polls.