An Estimate is Just That

I'm beginning to think that estimating how many people will show up at Barack Obama's inauguration is starting to become like estimating how much snow will fall in Washington. You can swing from one extreme to another but never quite hit the right amount. I'm sure that outside of the DC metro area there isn't all that much talk about what's going to happen during the inauguration but in DC it's almost all most people can talk about these days. Estimates have ranged from nearly 2 million people in attendance to as many as 5 million.

Planners have been releasing news reports on just how many Port-a-potties will be needed on the National Mall in order to accomodate the expected turnout. As of last week some time I heard an estimate of approximately 1 potty per 1600 people. That's a lot and that's quite a long line. There's talk of how the city will handle security concerns. Hell, there's even concern about how people are going to even see anything. If you've ever been to Washington you know that the National Mall is a wide open space and in the middle of January it's downright cold... even in a weather fickle city like Washington. If you get even 200 yards (yards mind you) you will find that you won't be able to pick out Barack Obama from George W. Bush no matter how distinct looking the two men may be. And that's where the people with VIP passes will be. Farther than that you'll see a mass of people standing around. The only hope for seeing what is 'actually' happening will be by watching the Jumbo-trons that will be set up along the Mall.

So then why bother going? Why bother attending an event which you will end up watching on a type of TV anyways? Well part of it is to be part of something historic. I remember exactly where I was and what I was doing when I saw the election results this past November and I can only imagine that at the inauguration the feelings will be even more profound. It isn't just the inauguration of the next President but the inauguration of the first true minority into the highest office of the land and though we've had some exposure to minority leadership in movies and television, there is nothing to compare this moment to in reality. It is truly historic and many people want to attend this happening in person.

And that's where the estimates begin to come in. But then I remember the Million Man March which is probably the last event which drew in so many people to the National Mall. There were estimates that at least a million African-American men would be present on the mall but there was great disparity over whether this was true or not. Be that as it may, I think the city handled itself well and the even was a great success. Of course that was during the more pleasant time of year here in Washington so there wasn't a great deal of concern over whether or not people would be freezing. This time there is genuine concern over what will happen if it does snow around the time of inauguration. I mean here we will have 2.5 miles of toilets on the national mall and minimal turnout because no matter how historic... no one will want to freeze to death to experience history.

It's a situation with many unknowns. I mean you don't know what to think when you hear reports of people booking hotel rooms in Frederick, Maryland or West Virginia since both areas are 'within driving distance of DC' for the inauguration. Let me tell you something as a longtime Washington commuter. People who commute from those areas into DC leave at the crack of dawn during the week so that they can get to where they are going in time. For everyone else who is coming into town to attend the inauguration there is definitely going to be gridlock by people who don't know where to go and how to get there. There's no way to plan for that. Oh well. It should make for an interesting day I suppose though if Washington weather men begin predicting a sunny and warm day, I'd wear a winter coat and carry a snow shovel. Just in case.