Fouling Up the Weather Forecast

I once took a class on meteorology in elementary school. Though it wasn't as technical as it could have been, even from that small glimpse I could tell that it's a very difficult science and due to the changing nature of our planet, making one hundred percent foolproof forecasts was a near impossibility, at least with current technology. It's been a while since I've been in elementary school and though technology has improved by leaps and bounds, it's still rather difficult to make accurate predictions despite what all forecasters attempt to say to the contrary. Now I have no problem with their getting the forecast wrong now and again, I just wish they'd at least admit that they aren't infallible for a change.

Last week in the DC area we had a prediction for no more than one to three inches of snow to fall during the morning hours which would then give way to rain by late afternoon. It was predicted to begin around the tail end of rush hour (around say 9:00) and turn to rain by early afternoon. At least that's what most if not all weathermen were talking about. Unfortunately it didn't turn out quite that way. They got the snow start time just about right; flakes began to fall around 9:45 in the morning but the transition to rain took a little longer than expected and so we got more accumalation than anyone was predicting. It made for messy commutes home in the afternoon and evening and made for a lousy drive back to work the next morning. Now for me, it's a relatively simple thing to make adjustments in my schedule to accomodate changes in the weather like this but for working parents and such, it can be a logistical nightmare. Unfortunately, weathermen around here tend to forget that and still make confident predictions.

Why does it matter whether the predictions they make are accurate or not? Well think about it. The road crews that do the plowing and clearing of roads don't live at the yards waiting the entire winter for those days that it could snow. Their bosses listen to the same weather reports that we regular folks do and if they hear that there will only be flurries with possible accumulations of an inch or less around the region then they plan accordingly. Now if all of a sudden the storm shifts tracks and moves in a direction that wasn't expected that inch could suddenly become one foot. The converse has also been true. Several times a few years ago the weathermen around here put the fear of God in everyone that we were going to be innundated with record snowfalls over the course of a week. People loaded up on the usual snow supplies, bread, milk and toilet paper. I guess people think life will turn into a prison where we have bread and milk and then process it out (hence the toilet paper) for weeks on end.

The region was braced for snow and then "oops", the winds shifted slightly and we got balmy weather while northern states got buried. Now shifting winds are not the fault of the weathermen but the build up they and the news anchors did was enough to get people worried to the point that they stocked up planning to be snowed in for weeks rather than a few days (at the most). Around here at the worst we have been snowbound in our houses for no more than a week. These days, in the more populated parts of the region, they don't take even that long to get us dug out on the main roads. So then why do I have a beef with weathermen? Because I get tired of hearing them speak like unfallible prognosticators who rank themselves up there with Nostradamus. They attempt to claim such knowledge at times that we are expected to believe their every word like the Gospel and plan our lives (or panic) accordingly. What do I expect then? I would expect a little bit of humility.

When they get the predictions wrong at least own up to it rather than claiming that it was a scenario that was completely unexpected due to descending pressure fronts that added some much needed warmer air that pushed the storm front a few miles north and kept the snow away. They will claim they thought of everything except that. As it is there are such vague weather terms out there already in use that they can cover all bases as needed. What's the difference between 'partly sunny' and 'mostly cloudy'? I suppose it's like a optimist and pessimist looking at a glass as being half full or half empty. What about the ubiquitous winter prediction of 'snow showers'? This could mean that snow is expected to fall but it could be wet snow with no accumulation or it could be snow that could yield a few inches. But by terming it snow showers they can cover both possibilities. Fair enough, but at least be honest and tell us that you don't know. Don't boast about your weather machines and super-duper doppler that can pinpoint snow flakes falling to within a third of an inch to any location in the region. I don't care about the machines, I care about knowing how to prepare.